Assessing the climate suitable regions using ecological niche modelling for the cultivation of phalsa, an underutilized fruit in India

Ecological Niche Modelling for Phalsa in India

Abstract

Phalsa an underutilized fruit-bearing shrub of the family Malvaceae, possesses immense potential for diversification of sustainable horticulture and nutritional security, particularly in marginal and degraded lands yet remains neglected in mainstream horticulture. The present study assessed the potential climatic suitability of phalsa cultivation in India using Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) based on the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm integrated with DIVA-GIS. Seventy-five geo-referenced occurrence points were collected from six districts of Telangana, representing semi-arid agro-ecosystems, and analyzed with nineteen bioclimatic variables derived from WorldClim data. The results identified extensive regions in central, southern, and eastern India particularly Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Odisha as highly to moderately suitable for phalsa cultivation. The most influential environmental variable was precipitation of the driest month (Bio14). The findings provide a scientific basis for crop diversification, regional planning, and conservation strategies aimed at promoting phalsa cultivation in India’s changing climatic context.